I’ve never been this skeptical, and it feels wild to say that.

I’ve been in the btc space since 2015. I’ve been a hardcore believer and a net accumulator through every cycle since. I’ve held through 80% drawdowns without flinching because the long term thesis always felt inevitable.

But recently, I find myself doubting the future of this space more than ever. It is wild to hear myself say that, considering how entrenched I am, but this time feels different. It feels like we finally "made it"; we got the ETFs, we hit the numbers; but the victory feels . . . meh. The bridge to mass just isn't there.

Here is a breakdown of my skepticism:

• Usability is still a nightmare: self-custody is still terrifying for 99% of the population. The learning curve is too steep. The gap between L1/L2 is a UX mess; managing channels and inbound liquidity is complex. If the answer for the masses is "just use a custodial ETF," then we have just recreated the banking system we tried to escape.
• The "OGs" sold: The demographics of the market have severely changed. It feels like the early believers distributed their coins to institutions, shifting the ethos from "separation of money and state" to "integration with the state." Institutional adoption feels stagnant beyond just holding "paper Bitcoin" for speculation.
• Privacy is effectively non existent: With the rise of chain analysis and compliance tools, the ledger has become the ultimate surveillance tool. True privacy is being actively criminalized, and non-KYC coins are becoming nearly impossible to offload.
• The 100k psychological eiling: Reaching 100k felt like the end of a movie rather than the start of a sequel. With the law of large numbers kicking in, the asymmetry of the bet is gone.
• Toxic culture & politicization: The community used to be about builders. Now, it feels politicized and dominated by "number go up" influencers. Intellectual honesty is often attacked as FUD.
• Quantum: not just a theory. Are we going to come to a reasonable solution?

I understand that sentiment is down, but this feels structural, not just cyclical. It feels like we were "correct" after all these years, but the ability to move "over the hump" into actual global currency usage/store of value just isn't going to happen.

Do you feel the "magic" is gone, or is this just what maturity looks like? Am I overlooking a catalyst that brings the excitement back?