The 4-Year Cycle Isn’t Dead

People who didn’t take profits in Q4 are now pushing the “cycle is broken” narrative.

But the pattern is still visible:
2017 → Major top formed in Q4
2021 → Major top formed in Q4
2025 → Again showing similar late-cycle behavior

Across past cycles, each post-halving rally has typically:

Peaked in the late-year “green zone”
Followed by a harsh accumulation phase
Then a recovery phase most people didn’t expect

We may be seeing a similar structure again, just at different price levels and narratives.

BTC is currently around $74K.

From a cycle perspective, this still looks closer to a late expansion / early distribution phase, rather than a full macro reset.

Historically, deeper bottoms have tended to form well after the euphoric phase fades — often in the later part of the cycle window.

If the pattern continues, late 2026 (Q3/Q4) could align with a broader bottoming range — but that’s just a cyclical observation, not a certainty.

Not financial advice.